At present, port congestion in many places has once again intensified, and more than 350 freighters around the world are waiting in line for unloading. Some media said that the current repeated epidemics may cause the global shipping system to face the biggest crisis in 65 years.

　　Global port congestion is getting worse

　　 A-share port and shipping company has good performance

　　 According to foreign media reports, as of now, 353 container ships are lining up outside ports around the world, more than double the number in the same period last year.

Domestically, after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in Ningbo Zhoushan Port on August 11, the Meishan Port Area was closed. Ships in the Meishan Port Area have been adjusted to other port areas. The number of container ships berthed in Xiamen, the southeast coastal city of China, has increased from the previous month. 6 ships increased to 24 ships, and domestic port congestion is also increasing.

　　Analysis believes that during the epidemic, countries have strengthened border control and traditional supply chains have been affected. However, the demand for online shopping from local people has increased significantly, resulting in a surge in maritime freight volume and ports overwhelming. In addition to the epidemic, the obsolescence of global port infrastructure is also an important reason for the congestion of freighters. In this regard, people from Sinotrans Marine said that port automation reform will undoubtedly be a trend in the development of the industry, and for shipping companies, implementing digital reforms can also improve port handling efficiency.

　　Severe congestion at shipping ports has caused shipping prices on some routes to skyrocket by more than 10 times. From the perspective of industry insiders, the hot market in the shipping industry will continue until the end of this year, while the market for next year still needs to be observed. Thanks to the booming shipping market, my country's listed shipping companies have seen substantial growth in the first half of 2021. Since August, the port and shipping sector has risen by 4.31%. According to the analysis, the net profit of Yantian Port, Bohai Ferry, and Changjiang Phoenix in the first half of the year increased by 49.99%, 9441.50%, and 630% respectively; COSCO Shipping Holdings and Ningbo Shipping are expected to increase their net profit in the first half of the year by 3162.36% and 500% respectively- 750%. CITIC Construction Investment stated that the super peak season for container shipping in the third quarter has begun, and the demand for space has continued to rise. The unilateral market pattern caused by the serious imbalance of supply and demand will continue, and high-quality ports have configuration value.

　　The global supply chain faces a huge threat

　　 Port congestion is the core bottleneck of "disorder" in the global supply chain. According to statistics, since about 42% of global exports come from Asia, the chaos in the Asian market may distort the global supply chain. Affected by the mutant new crown virus "Delta", many Asian countries are facing a new wave of epidemics, causing many factories and ports to be paralyzed, and impacting the global supply chain.

Zhao Wei, chief economist of Kaiyuan Securities, told Xinhua Finance that the “threat” of maritime transport to the global supply chain comes from two aspects: On the one hand, maritime freight rates continue to rise, pushing up global supply chain transportation costs; since May 2020 , The global container freight index has risen sharply by nearly 4 times; on the other hand, the shortage of shipping capacity has caused the global trade supply to be restricted. The shortage of shipping capacity is closely related to the close to full shipping capacity, the serious shortage of new capacity, the "labor shortage" in many important ports, and the drastic reduction in the number of seafarers.

　　 Looking to the future, as the import demand from Europe and the United States remains high, the industry’s new capacity is severely insufficient, the seafarer gap continues to exist, and oil prices are superimposed, shipping capacity may continue to be tight, and freight rates are at a high level.

　　 Many domestic and foreign retailers said that due to the continuous supply chain interruption, they are facing the problem of inventory shortage. Due to the increase in cost, they are forced to pass part of the cost to consumers.

　　 Take Nike as an example. The company warned that Nike sneakers manufactured in Vietnam may face the risk of out of stock. In the second quarter of 2021, 49% of Nike's seaborne imports in the United States came from Vietnam. Nike Chief Financial Officer Matt Friend said that current consumer demand exceeds market supply and inventory levels are decreasing. The company predicts that in the 2022 fiscal year, problems such as supply chain delays and high logistics costs will continue to exist. Adidas recently warned that by the end of this year, supply chain constraints may cause sales losses of up to 500 million euros (about 3.8 billion yuan).

　　What is the current status of my country's traditional pillar industry textile industry?

　　 Foreign trade companies can be said to be complaining about the increase in shipping prices. For example, the textile industry, one of the most influential industries, not only bears the continuously rising shipping prices, but also faces the status quo that high prices are still not available.

　　 Luo Zhiheng, deputy dean and chief macro researcher of the Yuekai Securities Research Institute, pointed out in an interview that for foreign trade companies, shipping is the most important mode of transportation in international trade, and the price of shipping continues to rise, which reduces the profits of foreign trade companies. It is difficult to find a box in the shipping market this year. As a result, it is difficult for companies to fulfill their contracts on time, and delayed delivery has led to a backlog of inventories and tight cash flow. Especially for textile companies, their labor-intensive companies have low gross profit margins. This year, they are also facing the triple pressure of rising shipping logistics, fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, and rising raw materials driven by bulk commodities. They are prone to threats of "unable to accept orders and unprofitable exports".

　　 Zhao Wei also emphasized that the market outlook for textile exports depends on the influence of the "substitution effect". For textile companies, the bargaining power of freight rates is weak, and their profitability is easily eroded by ocean freight rates. Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries have repaired their production capacity rapidly this year, especially textile production has exceeded the level before the epidemic; under the restoration of production capacity, Vietnam’s export growth rate has been relatively rapid. Level. The restoration of production capacity and the recovery of export share in production-oriented countries such as Vietnam will cause China's "substitution effect" to weaken.

　　 Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Financial Securities, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, said that my country’s textile and apparel export markets are currently concentrated in Europe, America and Japan. With the increase in vaccination rates and the normalization of herd immunity in these countries, the import of textile anti-epidemic products has dropped significantly. As the global epidemic prevention and control has gradually become normalized, the trade demand for epidemic-related items has weakened, and many manufacturing countries have restarted production, and the domestic textile industry will be affected by that time.

The person in charge of a textile company told Xinhua Finance that the continuously rising freight rates are alarming, global ports are congested, storage spaces are in short supply, transportation capacity is declining, goods cannot be delivered, the balance cannot be returned, the factory is blown up, and funds continue to occupy... When the global fragile supply chain may collapse at any time, companies must start to switch from export to domestic sales if they want to survive. In addition, he bluntly stated that abnormal port congestion and orders being "breached" from time to time will severely impact the market's confidence in the future textile market.

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